According to a report from Paradigm, an investor in Polymarket competitor Kalshi, several important data providers were miscounting Polymarket volume, leading to volume values double what the volume actually was.
The report, which came from Paradigm’s research partner, Storm Slivkoff, detailed how many data providers were relying on counting the number of “OrderFilled” events that were emitted from the Polymarket contract.
However, when a trade occurs on Polymarket, there are actually two “OrderFilled” events, one for the marker and one for the taker.
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This data problem isn’t related to any wash trading that occurs on Polymarket but is simply a result of failing to appropriately account for how the smart contract emits these events.
Examples of data providers that were over-counting the data included in the Paradigm report are DefiLlama, Allium, and Blockworks, all of whom are apparently working to correct this problem.
Interestingly, Polymarket claims that this problem didn’t affect the data on its own website, with X user “primo_data,” who’s affiliated with Polymarket, noting that it “shows notional taker volume” in the same manner that Kalshi does and further noting that other dashboards had followed this method.
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Prediction markets have become increasingly important after the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission made the decision under the Trump administration to effectively allow binary options providers.
Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an investor in Polymarket through 1789 Capital, the venture capital firm where he’s a partner.
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The post Polymarket volume misreported as data providers double-count trades, report appeared first on Protos.
