Bitcoin’s recent pullback is raising questions about whether the market has seen the bottom.
Current data from on-chain metrics and price action suggest there could still be more room to fall.
A key loss-tracking indicator used by traders is not yet at levels that have marked previous market lows.
On-Chain Losses Show More Room Below
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez points to a historical pattern based on realized losses. When the average unrealized loss for short-term holders drops below -37%, it has often marked strong entry points.
Some of the best buy-the-dip opportunities have appeared when Bitcoin $BTC on-chain trader realized loss drops below -37%.
Right now, it’s at -18%. pic.twitter.com/k5rys0yip5
— Ali (@alicharts) December 11, 2025
This data tracks coins held for one to three months.
These holders are, on average, down 18% on their positions (as of December 8). While this reflects market pain, the level is far below what has been seen at past lows. Bitcoin also trades below its realized price of around $112,300. The cryptocirrency is is near $90,400 at press time, showing many traders are still underwater.
Previous drops of more than 37% happened in early 2020, mid-2022, and late 2023. Each time, the market later reversed and moved higher.
Price Slides After Fed Meeting
Bitcoin dropped after the US Federal Reserve held its December policy meeting. The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, and Chair Jerome Powell said another cut could come in 2026.
The current weekly loss is over 3%, with a 24-hour decline of over 2%. Price traded in a wide range between $89,623 and $94,177 over the past 24 hours (CoinGecko). The last high was $126,080 in early October, meaning the market is down more than 28% from that point.
In addition, Bitcoin futures on the CME have retested a major trendline. After breaking out of a linear downtrend, price has now returned to the breakout zone, according to Super฿ro. This kind of retest is often watched by traders looking for confirmation.
At the same time, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average — a setup known as a death cross. This is the first death cross on CME futures since 2022. While not always a reliable signal on its own, many traders use it to mark trend shifts or confirm weakness.
Traders Watch Key Zones for Direction
Analyst CRYPTOWZRD noted that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed without a clear direction. A break and hold above $94,000 would support a move higher. Below $89,250, the chart remains weak.
Price is now trading in a tight range. Until there is a clear breakout, traders are staying patient and watching for stronger setups on lower time frames.
Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures has dropped sharply. According to Ali, total open interest has fallen from $47.5 billion to $27.5 billion in just two months. This points to reduced exposure across the board.
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